* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 07/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 23 21 19 19 21 24 26 28 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 23 21 19 19 21 24 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 7 13 14 13 6 1 11 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 59 46 54 78 80 116 110 214 217 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.8 25.1 24.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 114 111 109 107 107 110 114 112 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 47 45 46 42 43 42 40 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 22 17 11 24 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 36 36 30 40 10 -16 -22 -10 -35 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2385 2330 2235 2127 2020 1829 1619 1432 1257 1052 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.7 134.7 135.8 136.9 138.9 141.0 142.9 144.6 146.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 07/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 07/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY