* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 39 47 57 67 73 79 82 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 39 47 57 67 73 79 82 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 35 40 48 56 65 72 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 14 19 11 17 12 11 6 3 4 5 13 SHEAR DIR 92 88 82 74 104 84 102 106 127 58 289 270 209 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.7 24.9 24.8 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 137 132 122 116 114 112 106 106 109 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 146 142 136 130 120 113 112 109 103 103 106 107 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -52.9 -54.1 -52.8 -53.8 -53.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 87 81 82 80 81 78 78 73 69 67 62 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 16 15 17 19 18 19 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 25 36 58 80 101 103 117 128 131 145 137 121 84 200 MB DIV 88 93 121 117 106 144 112 97 44 56 44 34 11 LAND (KM) 127 161 230 331 438 657 858 1072 1299 1557 1849 2138 2048 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.6 14.8 16.4 18.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.7 22.8 24.9 27.2 29.5 32.0 34.7 38.0 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 21 26 17 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 32. 42. 48. 54. 57. 58. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 32. 42. 48. 54. 57. 58. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)