* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 65 63 60 56 49 43 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 65 63 60 56 49 43 37 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 61 59 54 51 48 46 43 40 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 16 11 3 8 10 10 12 16 15 14 12 SHEAR DIR 70 75 90 103 79 29 120 124 111 101 114 122 147 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 120 120 121 122 121 120 118 115 111 108 104 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 64 61 62 66 66 69 68 64 57 53 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 5 7 23 35 30 33 41 50 61 58 39 16 200 MB DIV 13 2 22 60 66 28 22 35 -2 -5 -18 -14 -19 LAND (KM) 1645 1710 1777 1834 1892 1992 2071 2144 2228 2307 2379 2279 2165 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.5 125.3 126.0 126.7 127.9 129.0 130.0 131.1 132.1 133.0 134.0 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -22. -28. -31. -35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -16. -22. -28. -31. -34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY