* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 07/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 49 51 48 44 39 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 49 51 48 44 39 37 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 13 13 17 19 15 20 18 18 24 23 20 SHEAR DIR 77 91 113 112 101 92 87 90 94 99 99 104 102 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 143 140 137 133 128 124 124 126 127 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 79 78 77 74 71 72 72 70 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 14 16 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 66 65 71 89 112 118 122 124 126 126 118 200 MB DIV 69 93 102 90 47 35 93 41 51 17 57 29 29 LAND (KM) 590 613 625 639 660 694 722 706 734 795 889 992 1082 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.5 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.5 108.3 108.9 109.5 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.7 113.8 115.1 116.5 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 5 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 18. 16. 13. 11. 9. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 24. 26. 23. 19. 14. 12. 11. 10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 07/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 07/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY