* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 38 48 60 70 80 84 84 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 38 48 60 70 80 84 84 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 48 57 64 68 70 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 8 8 9 6 4 6 4 7 4 7 SHEAR DIR 78 77 82 94 74 93 66 96 311 346 295 252 263 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.1 24.8 25.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 142 136 131 122 118 117 116 108 106 108 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 143 137 130 121 115 114 113 105 104 104 106 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 83 79 78 75 74 68 66 63 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 13 15 14 14 16 16 18 17 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 52 70 90 88 112 121 109 120 113 83 66 15 200 MB DIV 92 111 108 97 125 137 105 102 48 78 8 22 32 LAND (KM) 138 185 279 399 524 750 974 1162 1371 1571 1850 2158 2253 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 14.3 16.6 19.2 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 16.6 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.4 23.6 25.8 27.8 30.0 32.1 34.7 37.6 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 13 15 18 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 23 24 15 9 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 45. 55. 59. 59. 58. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 45. 55. 59. 59. 58. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)