* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP802008 07/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18 20 22 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 8 9 9 9 12 13 10 16 22 23 23 SHEAR DIR 259 252 228 236 276 318 341 8 312 294 274 262 253 SST (C) 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 100 101 102 105 107 109 112 115 117 118 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 17 17 15 14 15 14 19 23 26 30 35 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -3 0 0 4 0 8 15 17 9 4 -2 -15 200 MB DIV -33 -31 -22 -37 -45 -33 -23 -11 -10 -11 -21 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 733 681 630 565 501 385 299 270 328 444 554 666 734 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.2 17.5 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.4 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.3 148.8 149.5 150.1 151.4 152.9 154.5 156.2 157.8 159.4 161.0 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -11. -8. -6. -4. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -6. -2. 0. 2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP802008 INVEST 07/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 41.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP802008 INVEST 07/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY