* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 59 57 52 47 39 33 28 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 59 57 52 47 39 33 28 23 21 19 V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 62 59 56 52 47 43 39 34 31 28 25 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 11 5 5 9 10 15 17 15 14 14 14 SHEAR DIR 85 90 105 98 48 99 135 126 116 112 99 93 98 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 119 119 116 112 108 107 108 107 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 67 66 64 70 66 64 59 56 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 32 48 43 34 50 53 50 54 42 23 23 200 MB DIV 20 31 71 87 65 6 13 9 -7 -17 -6 5 -15 LAND (KM) 1714 1778 1843 1890 1939 2021 2081 2144 2200 2303 2282 2169 2047 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.1 14.7 14.4 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.4 126.2 126.9 127.5 129.0 130.0 130.9 131.6 132.6 133.9 135.1 136.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -19. -26. -33. -39. -41. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -8. -13. -18. -26. -32. -37. -42. -44. -46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY