* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 07/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 40 45 44 41 34 31 28 29 30 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 40 45 44 41 34 31 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 19 18 17 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 13 15 19 18 19 22 22 26 27 24 18 SHEAR DIR 96 122 99 96 85 102 93 91 99 96 99 100 118 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 137 133 126 122 121 124 125 127 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -51.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 87 85 80 79 77 73 71 66 70 69 71 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 16 14 13 11 11 9 9 8 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 67 72 82 90 111 116 119 122 121 122 129 105 200 MB DIV 92 95 88 52 31 58 58 49 24 25 47 1 18 LAND (KM) 496 499 507 530 562 627 645 691 791 895 1037 1166 1287 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.1 16.8 16.2 16.0 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.3 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.4 115.6 116.9 118.4 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 10. 13. 12. 10. 6. 4. 1. 1. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 15. 20. 19. 16. 9. 6. 3. 4. 5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 07/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 07/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY