* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 60 73 82 86 86 85 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 60 73 82 86 86 85 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 47 56 64 70 72 73 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 8 5 4 2 5 1 4 1 4 8 13 SHEAR DIR 88 89 95 92 89 159 141 76 63 51 43 292 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.4 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.8 25.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 132 124 119 114 115 115 110 106 106 108 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 138 131 123 118 112 112 110 106 103 102 103 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -54.0 -53.1 -54.1 -52.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 78 78 77 69 64 62 61 61 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 16 16 18 19 20 22 20 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 65 77 89 96 102 118 127 138 153 130 108 58 23 200 MB DIV 97 87 100 118 124 103 102 96 95 40 48 32 16 LAND (KM) 112 226 348 488 617 883 1143 1360 1535 1739 2001 2216 2354 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 13.6 15.4 17.8 20.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 17.7 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.6 25.3 27.8 29.9 31.7 33.7 36.0 38.3 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 11 10 12 15 17 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 11 5 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 35. 48. 57. 61. 61. 60. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 35. 48. 57. 61. 61. 60. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)