* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME CP802008 07/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 19 21 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 8 9 10 11 17 7 18 20 25 23 20 SHEAR DIR 252 228 251 279 302 332 351 357 299 276 267 249 260 SST (C) 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 98 99 101 102 103 106 107 110 113 116 117 118 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 17 16 14 15 14 14 21 25 29 32 35 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 2 0 1 12 19 11 4 3 -8 -17 200 MB DIV -31 -22 -35 -45 -48 -17 -32 -17 -10 -22 -18 -13 3 LAND (KM) 681 635 590 532 478 373 329 317 398 507 614 709 761 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.4 17.7 16.9 16.1 15.5 15.2 15.2 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 148.3 148.8 149.2 149.8 150.4 151.8 153.3 155.0 156.8 158.4 160.0 161.5 163.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -7. -3. -1. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP802008 NONAME 07/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 42.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP802008 NONAME 07/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY