* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 54 53 46 40 31 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 54 53 46 40 31 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 54 51 48 43 39 34 30 27 23 20 17 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 4 1 6 15 12 16 16 19 20 22 19 SHEAR DIR 94 117 124 360 104 157 151 148 119 102 84 92 97 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 117 116 115 111 107 105 102 101 99 99 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 61 64 68 67 64 65 65 63 55 47 45 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 9 9 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 17 33 30 28 42 50 56 54 54 54 33 34 200 MB DIV 30 50 68 33 12 5 20 -1 -2 -9 6 -12 -20 LAND (KM) 1731 1780 1832 1881 1918 2004 2066 2161 2258 2303 2212 2087 1940 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.7 126.4 127.1 127.8 129.2 130.2 131.4 132.5 133.5 134.4 135.7 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -19. -27. -34. -42. -47. -51. -51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -7. -14. -20. -29. -36. -43. -48. -52. -52. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY