* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 07/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 37 42 40 36 30 24 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 37 42 40 36 30 24 21 22 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 17 17 18 12 15 21 21 26 24 22 29 SHEAR DIR 98 101 92 95 101 80 71 80 96 96 110 110 112 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 138 131 123 117 118 122 124 126 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 86 81 81 81 79 75 70 68 68 70 68 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 83 84 97 109 107 104 93 104 103 116 95 200 MB DIV 78 80 59 20 5 53 14 12 21 25 56 63 40 LAND (KM) 454 431 421 429 444 524 545 622 761 915 1051 1166 1244 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.0 17.5 16.9 16.4 15.9 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.1 107.7 108.3 108.8 110.0 111.5 112.9 114.5 116.0 117.3 118.3 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -4. -6. -6. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 12. 17. 15. 11. 5. -1. -4. -3. -2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 07/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 07/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY