* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 51 61 72 80 85 85 86 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 51 61 72 80 85 85 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 40 48 57 65 70 73 74 SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 3 4 3 2 3 4 6 1 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 83 84 99 110 173 228 181 78 57 37 41 353 290 SST (C) 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 123 118 115 116 117 116 112 109 108 110 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 129 121 116 114 114 115 112 108 106 105 104 107 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 78 78 77 72 67 63 63 64 62 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 20 20 21 21 21 19 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 76 82 86 98 100 117 130 148 150 121 107 66 31 200 MB DIV 78 79 92 120 91 102 79 74 93 53 65 44 75 LAND (KM) 240 374 508 633 761 1063 1333 1555 1696 1880 2103 2130 2188 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.9 14.7 17.1 19.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 27.0 29.5 31.6 33.1 35.0 37.3 39.6 41.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 13 11 9 11 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 9 4 2 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 26. 36. 47. 55. 60. 60. 61. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 26. 36. 47. 55. 60. 60. 61. 61. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)