* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * RTB CP802008 07/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 36 36 32 29 25 23 25 28 27 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 36 36 32 29 25 23 24 26 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 41 42 41 38 35 32 31 27 28 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 14 16 13 11 14 10 20 19 21 32 32 SHEAR DIR 221 226 251 272 293 337 35 344 350 300 291 274 267 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 102 104 105 107 111 114 117 119 122 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 14 13 13 13 14 18 26 32 39 46 47 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 0 3 -1 12 5 -8 -7 -20 -31 -21 -21 200 MB DIV -39 -54 -42 -50 -35 -36 -11 0 22 -1 2 -9 -24 LAND (KM) 607 544 482 415 348 209 106 31 33 10 15 158 314 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.0 149.6 150.2 150.9 151.5 152.9 154.3 155.7 157.0 158.4 159.8 161.2 162.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -10. -7. -8. -9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP802008 RTB 07/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -44.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 41.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP802008 RTB 07/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED