* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 55 53 46 38 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 55 53 46 38 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 54 50 47 41 36 31 27 23 20 18 16 SHEAR (KTS) 11 5 3 7 9 9 14 14 11 13 17 12 15 SHEAR DIR 126 110 74 109 157 161 157 153 105 91 89 97 104 SST (C) 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 112 110 108 102 99 98 96 95 94 95 95 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 64 64 63 62 59 59 55 46 45 41 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 17 16 15 13 12 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 19 34 30 29 29 52 58 64 57 56 52 50 41 200 MB DIV 54 68 32 10 7 19 17 -8 -14 5 -4 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 1744 1788 1829 1858 1889 1973 2061 2175 2285 2154 2048 1930 1797 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.3 126.9 127.6 128.3 129.7 130.8 132.1 133.5 134.8 135.9 137.1 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -24. -34. -41. -46. -52. -53. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -5. -7. -14. -22. -32. -40. -46. -52. -52. -54. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY