* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR EP042008 07/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 40 41 43 41 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 40 41 43 41 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 31 29 26 23 20 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 17 16 14 14 16 23 24 27 25 26 31 SHEAR DIR 92 85 91 97 92 83 83 99 106 96 93 91 115 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 139 135 128 119 115 117 120 120 122 124 124 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 80 75 74 69 68 65 67 71 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 72 74 84 93 93 88 72 77 75 82 64 66 200 MB DIV 72 43 9 12 35 23 9 -2 7 4 28 8 40 LAND (KM) 447 421 415 432 451 513 537 651 791 959 1091 1214 1293 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.4 18.1 17.8 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.4 108.0 108.6 109.1 110.5 111.9 113.6 115.3 117.0 118.4 119.5 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -14. -18. -20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 10. 11. 13. 11. 5. -2. -9. -12. -16. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 FOUR 07/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 FOUR 07/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY