* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 59 71 81 85 86 85 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 59 71 81 85 86 85 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 33 38 45 53 60 65 69 69 SHEAR (KTS) 11 6 8 8 10 10 7 9 4 6 7 12 18 SHEAR DIR 95 128 107 120 134 136 98 57 111 45 255 274 248 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.2 25.4 24.9 25.1 25.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 126 122 118 116 117 118 115 110 107 109 111 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 124 120 116 114 115 115 111 107 104 105 105 108 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -52.9 -53.5 -52.4 -53.7 -52.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 85 79 78 76 76 73 71 67 69 66 68 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 18 19 19 21 24 25 24 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 79 84 95 97 103 130 158 165 151 129 98 56 27 200 MB DIV 82 94 130 97 112 107 107 95 94 91 48 30 44 LAND (KM) 384 507 631 760 888 1159 1395 1550 1694 1924 2183 2256 2355 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.2 13.8 16.4 19.0 21.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 20.3 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.2 27.8 30.0 31.6 33.2 35.4 37.8 40.4 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 12 9 9 14 17 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 2 1 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 34. 46. 56. 60. 61. 60. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 34. 46. 56. 60. 61. 60. 58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)