* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 62 58 50 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 62 58 50 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 62 59 54 46 38 32 27 23 20 18 15 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 8 9 12 13 15 12 15 12 16 13 17 SHEAR DIR 147 146 136 155 158 154 146 127 115 89 84 95 115 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 106 104 102 96 93 93 93 94 94 93 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 64 63 58 54 48 49 46 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 27 27 38 45 59 54 60 65 59 51 43 200 MB DIV 64 42 10 14 16 23 0 -23 1 15 15 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1767 1796 1822 1850 1880 1936 2034 2139 2246 2199 2063 1945 1824 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.2 15.8 15.6 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 126.9 127.5 128.1 128.7 129.7 130.9 132.0 133.1 134.3 135.7 136.9 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -9. -17. -28. -39. -47. -52. -57. -59. -61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -3. -7. -15. -26. -37. -46. -52. -57. -59. -61. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY