* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR EP042008 07/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 39 41 43 43 39 34 30 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 39 41 43 43 39 34 30 25 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 33 32 31 29 27 25 24 22 20 SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 18 14 10 12 12 8 10 9 10 11 15 SHEAR DIR 73 87 101 85 87 85 110 118 129 163 138 183 145 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 134 131 126 119 113 108 104 102 101 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 76 74 76 75 71 68 66 64 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 13 13 11 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 74 80 89 97 95 90 88 86 84 73 64 55 200 MB DIV 60 29 27 56 58 28 22 -14 18 2 0 8 12 LAND (KM) 403 409 423 428 435 453 464 422 384 383 424 470 515 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.7 108.1 108.4 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.7 111.4 112.4 113.1 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -6. -6. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 9. 4. 0. -5. -5. -6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 FOUR 07/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 FOUR 07/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED