* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 41 51 65 73 80 88 87 88 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 41 51 65 73 80 88 87 88 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 41 49 58 65 70 72 70 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 5 5 2 1 1 5 1 3 8 16 22 SHEAR DIR 129 121 127 130 161 124 343 24 164 117 263 207 247 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.5 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 117 115 115 116 116 112 109 109 112 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 116 114 114 114 112 108 107 106 108 109 108 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 76 73 70 64 64 65 64 58 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 17 19 21 21 25 23 21 24 22 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 86 95 107 135 156 162 148 131 81 52 17 200 MB DIV 94 131 103 114 97 90 81 90 76 81 32 52 19 LAND (KM) 391 537 661 808 960 1267 1527 1703 1912 2080 2078 2134 2219 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.3 13.1 14.8 17.3 19.6 22.0 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 20.4 21.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 29.0 31.4 33.2 35.3 37.8 40.6 43.3 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 13 10 12 15 17 17 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 4. 7. 5. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 40. 48. 55. 63. 62. 63. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 40. 48. 55. 63. 62. 63. 58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)