* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 63 60 56 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 63 60 56 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 62 57 53 43 35 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 9 11 13 14 15 15 15 16 14 16 12 SHEAR DIR 156 117 141 158 166 158 143 123 102 89 89 89 80 SST (C) 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 99 96 95 92 90 90 91 91 92 94 97 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 61 60 57 52 47 49 43 45 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 16 17 15 13 13 12 9 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 19 32 39 52 60 63 53 47 52 52 53 200 MB DIV 44 17 20 24 35 11 -16 -15 -9 0 -2 5 -5 LAND (KM) 1770 1789 1810 1841 1874 1956 2054 2170 2239 2100 1933 1793 1672 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.0 15.5 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.5 128.1 128.7 129.2 130.3 131.4 132.6 133.8 135.2 136.9 138.4 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -25. -30. -34. -36. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -10. -21. -34. -44. -53. -60. -63. -66. -67. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -5. -9. -20. -33. -44. -53. -61. -63. -66. -67. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY