* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 38 34 31 25 21 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 38 34 31 25 21 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 36 34 31 28 26 23 21 19 17 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 17 15 16 13 8 9 5 5 8 11 16 SHEAR DIR 81 92 95 105 98 105 103 62 106 141 194 199 152 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.4 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 134 130 124 114 109 104 99 94 93 93 95 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 74 74 71 74 67 68 63 60 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 84 92 97 91 87 81 76 87 81 61 52 40 200 MB DIV 18 14 34 40 14 14 4 -6 -20 7 -14 -5 -14 LAND (KM) 383 384 388 400 414 422 381 366 364 378 421 463 509 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.2 20.6 20.8 20.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.0 108.3 108.7 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.2 112.0 112.7 113.4 113.9 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -8. -12. -16. -18. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY