* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 07/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 32 35 40 41 41 44 47 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 32 35 35 36 32 38 42 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 24 21 23 22 20 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 17 14 13 25 24 27 26 35 28 30 31 SHEAR DIR 260 255 267 287 271 291 318 291 283 281 288 312 321 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 139 138 138 138 140 145 146 148 150 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 139 137 135 133 135 138 139 139 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 56 56 57 57 57 54 51 54 56 58 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -13 -12 -5 -7 -16 -3 -13 -20 -47 -39 -65 -43 200 MB DIV 58 49 55 42 29 -12 17 17 30 -4 17 2 6 LAND (KM) 321 355 433 369 241 133 63 10 66 -11 76 40 -26 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 61.2 62.6 64.0 65.3 67.7 70.1 72.6 75.0 77.3 79.6 81.6 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 13 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 52 57 59 62 51 67 0 75 67 88 81 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -14. -17. -18. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 21. 22. 24. 27. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 20. 21. 21. 24. 27. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 07/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 07/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY