* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 36 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 36 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 39 35 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 14 14 17 15 13 14 11 14 18 13 14 SHEAR DIR 134 149 168 173 177 166 128 104 88 87 76 95 73 SST (C) 24.0 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 98 95 93 90 89 89 90 90 91 93 95 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 59 59 58 52 52 47 48 44 48 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 31 39 43 54 58 58 50 55 48 51 41 200 MB DIV 17 20 19 22 32 -8 -34 -37 -3 -12 -15 -5 -14 LAND (KM) 1781 1803 1827 1867 1910 2007 2114 2230 2137 1990 1846 1708 1575 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.3 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.1 128.7 129.4 130.0 131.0 132.1 133.3 134.8 136.3 137.8 139.3 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -19. -23. -26. -26. -27. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -33. -43. -52. -57. -60. -62. -60. -59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -14. -18. -29. -40. -50. -56. -60. -61. -59. -58. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY