* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 40 34 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 40 34 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 36 35 32 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 18 15 10 9 7 10 7 8 7 10 17 SHEAR DIR 67 69 86 100 101 96 94 121 151 177 192 160 151 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.4 23.7 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.3 22.4 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 125 119 114 105 97 92 90 87 82 83 86 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 74 74 72 69 65 61 57 52 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 76 85 91 86 84 80 80 78 77 61 36 23 24 200 MB DIV 11 22 41 34 26 18 -2 -10 -4 0 -18 -15 -3 LAND (KM) 367 364 364 392 368 330 310 332 359 388 376 417 505 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.9 21.9 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.5 108.8 109.3 109.7 110.7 111.7 112.4 112.9 113.5 114.2 114.9 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. -2. -9. -16. -23. -29. -30. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -8. -17. -23. -28. -30. -33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY