* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 53 60 64 65 66 68 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 53 60 64 65 66 68 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 50 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 9 12 17 19 16 19 16 19 17 25 28 SHEAR DIR 60 62 68 63 67 67 72 65 73 127 131 121 130 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 156 158 159 158 159 160 161 162 161 158 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 80 80 85 81 85 84 86 83 80 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 59 63 57 60 68 74 78 87 105 109 106 99 200 MB DIV 77 99 72 46 46 73 79 89 81 107 71 79 59 LAND (KM) 503 504 513 528 500 421 343 274 233 202 188 168 175 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.1 94.7 95.4 96.0 97.1 98.2 99.2 100.1 101.0 102.0 103.0 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 35. 38. 40. 42. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 35. 39. 40. 41. 43. 45. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY