* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 45 52 61 66 69 71 72 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 45 52 61 66 69 71 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 44 51 57 62 65 66 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 3 5 6 6 6 4 8 7 9 11 13 SHEAR DIR 134 158 175 175 204 305 310 319 157 204 183 236 221 SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.1 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 111 110 111 108 105 107 109 112 114 116 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 109 108 110 105 101 103 104 106 106 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 82 79 75 75 74 73 62 61 55 49 48 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 18 20 20 18 19 18 17 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 58 78 98 115 133 139 129 96 72 43 11 200 MB DIV 92 105 86 79 75 54 51 41 23 31 61 39 24 LAND (KM) 532 639 754 904 1058 1407 1718 2020 2016 1920 1924 2005 2143 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.6 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 21.7 23.0 24.3 25.8 27.3 30.6 33.5 36.3 39.0 41.8 44.2 45.6 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 14 15 16 16 14 14 14 14 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 36. 41. 44. 46. 47. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 36. 41. 44. 46. 47. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)