* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 07/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 38 41 42 42 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 38 36 41 40 42 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 21 23 22 21 19 17 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 16 10 14 26 24 31 34 30 38 44 44 SHEAR DIR 251 263 281 277 239 302 297 297 271 299 298 311 310 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 140 138 138 139 143 146 145 149 151 152 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 139 136 135 136 139 141 138 141 141 142 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 11 10 11 10 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 55 57 56 51 55 53 61 55 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -8 -30 -36 -58 -66 -50 200 MB DIV 42 47 38 36 16 18 2 27 18 3 6 0 24 LAND (KM) 334 405 416 299 217 135 16 -13 82 142 145 75 128 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.3 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.8 62.3 63.7 65.0 66.3 68.9 71.6 74.2 76.7 79.2 81.4 83.7 86.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 50 56 60 61 68 57 73 72 74 76 84 3 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -11. -17. -20. -24. -28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 24. 23. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 24. 23. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 07/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 07/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY