* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 38 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 38 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 36 32 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 15 17 10 10 12 13 15 12 14 11 12 SHEAR DIR 143 167 179 187 180 167 102 90 91 87 87 77 83 SST (C) 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 95 92 90 88 88 88 88 89 90 92 95 99 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 59 60 59 58 55 49 47 43 40 39 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 35 39 40 41 43 44 43 28 33 20 20 13 200 MB DIV 28 31 18 18 21 -14 -24 -2 -5 -11 -4 -1 7 LAND (KM) 1764 1792 1822 1859 1896 2010 2126 2254 2116 1951 1752 1597 1464 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.0 16.6 16.1 15.5 15.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.6 129.1 129.6 130.0 131.2 132.4 133.6 135.0 136.7 138.8 140.5 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -22. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -8. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -33. -43. -50. -57. -59. -63. -63. -61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -18. -29. -38. -47. -55. -58. -62. -61. -59. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY