* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 31 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 31 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 33 32 30 26 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 19 12 9 6 6 7 12 11 10 12 16 SHEAR DIR 55 70 90 89 84 84 97 108 155 161 157 143 150 SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 22.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 115 111 107 99 93 89 89 89 89 87 82 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 75 71 73 65 64 56 56 51 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 79 88 78 80 82 74 81 87 63 45 31 18 11 200 MB DIV 16 23 21 27 25 -5 -10 -15 -5 -19 -8 -9 2 LAND (KM) 390 409 401 372 352 328 364 411 439 471 508 556 630 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.3 109.7 110.2 110.7 111.7 112.8 113.6 114.3 114.9 115.5 116.3 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 367 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -12. -20. -26. -34. -39. -42. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -23. -29. -36. -40. -42. -46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY