* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 53 59 67 67 68 68 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 53 59 67 67 68 68 70 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 45 49 52 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 12 18 15 16 19 16 17 16 21 23 24 SHEAR DIR 46 46 47 62 66 72 72 81 83 99 81 95 89 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 158 159 160 160 161 161 162 162 157 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.6 -52.7 -53.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -53.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 6 9 7 9 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 86 84 81 81 84 83 83 86 83 84 81 81 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 8 8 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 70 78 77 80 80 83 82 82 104 106 104 88 92 200 MB DIV 103 84 60 56 70 74 81 91 90 88 57 48 44 LAND (KM) 474 480 495 468 423 344 273 229 191 182 137 145 172 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.6 95.2 95.9 96.5 97.7 98.9 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.4 104.5 105.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 25. 34. 37. 39. 41. 41. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 28. 34. 42. 42. 43. 43. 45. 48. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY