* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL922008 07/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 51 57 63 68 71 73 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 51 57 63 68 71 73 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 51 57 62 65 66 65 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 7 9 8 8 9 2 9 5 14 4 23 SHEAR DIR 174 191 197 237 249 267 251 236 207 211 234 201 236 SST (C) 26.5 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.3 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 110 110 110 105 106 109 112 115 119 120 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 108 109 109 103 103 105 107 108 108 107 103 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -54.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 81 77 75 74 74 67 56 49 49 44 45 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 23 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 61 81 89 97 108 127 107 79 52 35 6 200 MB DIV 101 78 65 64 57 67 50 29 39 80 43 45 -6 LAND (KM) 573 675 795 963 1138 1517 1888 2093 1955 1903 1944 1928 1963 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 16.2 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.5 28.1 31.6 35.0 38.5 41.8 44.8 46.7 47.9 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 13 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 27. 33. 38. 41. 43. 40. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 27. 33. 38. 41. 43. 40. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)