* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 07/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 32 35 38 36 35 36 35 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 32 35 38 36 35 36 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 10 13 20 23 29 32 42 38 40 45 44 SHEAR DIR 265 281 282 249 279 302 296 287 296 304 317 325 320 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 138 138 141 145 145 145 147 150 152 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 138 136 135 137 140 138 138 139 140 141 130 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 58 56 55 55 55 51 55 55 58 61 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 3 2 -3 -11 6 -7 -5 -25 -34 -61 -43 -63 200 MB DIV 52 56 41 19 8 12 4 25 11 32 6 36 15 LAND (KM) 377 438 325 250 204 133 59 95 55 211 185 44 132 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.4 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.6 65.0 66.3 67.6 70.3 73.0 75.5 77.9 80.2 82.3 84.4 86.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 61 66 55 69 83 78 82 86 89 73 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -16. -23. -28. -32. -36. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 16. 15. 16. 15. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 16. 15. 16. 15. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 07/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 07/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY