* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 18 11 14 8 5 10 9 10 10 17 10 11 SHEAR DIR 59 76 67 81 108 149 140 141 166 167 158 185 175 SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.3 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.8 22.9 22.7 22.3 21.8 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 114 109 104 98 93 88 87 88 86 83 78 73 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 70 71 67 63 56 55 51 46 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 11 12 10 10 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 78 77 81 81 84 89 80 62 41 27 8 2 200 MB DIV 13 21 23 26 -10 -5 0 -2 -3 -10 -16 -9 -14 LAND (KM) 362 353 311 288 279 296 362 407 439 476 534 626 691 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.1 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.6 111.1 111.9 113.0 113.8 114.5 115.4 116.4 117.7 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -32. -39. -43. -45. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -23. -31. -36. -41. -44. -46. -47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY