* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 60 62 65 66 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 60 62 65 66 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 37 41 45 49 53 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 19 17 17 18 16 18 20 17 20 18 21 SHEAR DIR 54 45 62 61 58 81 80 80 75 102 86 92 87 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 159 159 160 160 160 161 162 161 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 87 81 82 84 85 84 86 86 86 85 80 79 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 72 72 77 80 80 72 82 103 104 113 95 102 200 MB DIV 68 50 51 78 73 74 96 71 96 74 63 23 51 LAND (KM) 489 500 479 433 397 323 253 210 183 162 98 91 98 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.2 95.8 96.4 97.0 98.3 99.4 100.5 101.5 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 38. 39. 42. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 35. 37. 40. 41. 45. 45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY