* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * BERTHA AL022008 07/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 57 64 66 71 72 73 68 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 57 64 66 71 72 73 68 65 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 52 57 62 66 68 71 72 68 SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 0 4 6 8 3 10 12 10 10 33 37 SHEAR DIR 179 125 311 248 232 205 163 176 248 249 228 229 243 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.3 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.8 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 111 111 109 105 108 110 113 117 124 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 108 108 106 103 105 107 109 113 117 114 112 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 77 73 73 72 68 63 56 52 51 43 42 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 20 22 21 22 19 20 20 20 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 55 73 90 97 98 116 125 112 99 76 64 42 52 200 MB DIV 69 67 64 60 40 63 33 12 4 39 73 15 18 LAND (KM) 746 875 1007 1147 1289 1610 1989 1995 1839 1771 1733 1589 1498 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.5 21.3 22.8 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.5 26.8 28.2 29.5 32.5 36.0 39.3 42.5 45.7 49.0 51.2 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 17 17 16 16 17 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 8. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 29. 31. 36. 37. 38. 33. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 29. 31. 36. 37. 38. 33. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)