* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 10 10 11 10 11 12 15 17 20 9 10 8 SHEAR DIR 61 56 68 94 106 115 124 136 158 152 139 154 141 SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.9 23.7 23.4 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 106 101 99 96 96 96 98 97 94 89 85 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 70 71 70 64 63 54 54 48 47 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 71 72 66 72 83 71 59 45 34 38 39 200 MB DIV 27 26 27 -2 -11 2 -24 -14 -18 -12 -28 -23 8 LAND (KM) 352 317 290 296 313 364 434 493 542 573 636 716 788 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.7 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.8 110.3 110.9 111.4 112.4 113.4 114.1 114.6 115.4 116.4 117.7 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -30. -35. -40. -42. -42. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -23. -32. -38. -40. -40. -40. -39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY