* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 36 43 51 54 58 62 67 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 36 43 51 54 58 62 67 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 43 47 50 54 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 13 12 17 16 17 22 18 19 19 19 19 SHEAR DIR 63 60 69 59 69 75 79 68 88 92 101 96 107 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 160 160 160 161 162 162 162 160 156 149 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -53.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 6 9 8 10 8 10 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 85 84 84 85 81 84 81 81 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 77 79 82 82 77 96 109 110 94 89 99 200 MB DIV 50 54 66 62 69 79 91 78 77 83 35 37 19 LAND (KM) 449 459 436 383 344 261 224 196 170 122 96 93 117 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.1 95.7 96.4 97.1 98.5 99.9 101.1 102.0 102.9 103.7 104.6 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 25. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 31. 36. 38. 41. 44. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 45. 47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED