* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 50 57 61 65 68 70 66 65 59 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 57 61 65 68 70 66 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 49 54 59 65 70 73 71 65 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 8 9 5 5 7 3 3 15 15 30 35 SHEAR DIR 138 260 253 245 218 207 107 188 179 240 222 231 248 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.4 26.8 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 111 110 108 105 108 111 114 120 123 123 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 108 107 105 102 105 108 110 114 115 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 -54.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 72 72 69 59 57 52 50 46 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 21 19 19 18 20 16 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 52 70 70 74 84 108 106 92 68 63 46 28 17 200 MB DIV 56 65 54 24 52 64 26 19 40 55 35 22 -2 LAND (KM) 823 948 1077 1230 1385 1741 2099 1962 1828 1824 1780 1667 1633 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.0 19.0 20.5 22.5 24.2 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.3 27.5 29.0 30.4 33.7 37.0 40.3 43.7 46.7 49.2 50.9 52.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 16 16 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 13 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 24. 30. 35. 38. 34. 33. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. 31. 30. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)