* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 6 8 8 10 14 12 11 7 13 9 3 SHEAR DIR 168 170 155 112 126 95 63 76 66 66 51 73 53 SST (C) 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.6 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 90 90 91 93 94 95 95 96 97 101 101 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 56 52 49 48 48 44 50 50 43 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 11 11 10 8 7 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 43 40 36 36 38 33 10 -10 -16 -15 -5 200 MB DIV 17 10 -12 -11 -15 -29 -10 -15 -14 -9 11 1 -10 LAND (KM) 1891 1932 1973 2026 2078 2198 2180 2048 1913 1780 1628 1463 1351 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.7 16.1 15.6 15.3 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.1 130.6 131.1 131.6 132.7 134.5 135.9 137.3 138.7 140.2 141.8 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. -8. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -16. -17. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -31. -36. -41. -44. -45. -49. -46. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -17. -23. -32. -38. -44. -47. -45. -47. -45. -39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY