* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 9 10 6 11 10 15 16 17 18 20 N/A SHEAR DIR 33 55 69 88 106 113 133 126 145 136 131 129 N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.8 23.6 23.2 22.7 22.3 22.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 98 96 95 95 98 96 93 88 83 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 70 70 70 68 62 58 53 46 43 37 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 74 72 89 89 88 85 69 63 57 72 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 21 15 -5 7 1 -22 -2 -6 -5 -18 -9 N/A LAND (KM) 268 275 293 319 348 427 516 576 656 775 885 1029 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.7 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.8 21.0 20.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.4 114.3 115.6 116.8 118.5 119.9 121.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -17. -24. -30. -36. -40. -45. -46. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -23. -31. -37. -39. -43. -44. -41. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY