* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 64 69 73 76 75 72 67 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 64 69 73 76 75 72 67 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 50 55 60 66 71 73 74 72 68 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 7 6 9 1 7 7 8 15 15 23 30 SHEAR DIR 274 259 217 178 216 189 133 221 221 273 228 237 224 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 112 109 107 109 111 114 116 122 126 126 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 111 110 108 105 106 108 111 111 114 116 114 112 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 72 71 58 55 56 53 49 51 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 18 20 19 17 17 17 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 76 89 108 119 111 96 73 53 26 23 1 200 MB DIV 63 62 20 46 76 32 32 25 71 45 33 30 -2 LAND (KM) 963 1111 1262 1435 1610 1986 1915 1769 1697 1697 1643 1548 1520 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.2 21.8 23.6 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.8 29.2 30.9 32.5 36.0 39.5 42.9 46.0 48.5 50.4 51.9 53.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 15 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 14 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 24. 30. 34. 37. 37. 34. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 24. 29. 33. 36. 35. 32. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY