* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 10 9 10 12 14 8 7 3 8 3 3 SHEAR DIR 165 156 113 117 100 72 79 80 108 56 81 83 64 SST (C) 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 93 92 92 92 93 95 93 93 95 96 98 98 98 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 57 52 51 46 45 43 53 48 42 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 51 47 41 43 37 36 12 1 -15 -10 0 200 MB DIV 16 0 -9 -8 -25 -12 -11 -15 -10 -1 8 -13 -12 LAND (KM) 1946 2003 2060 2116 2173 2280 2097 1994 1919 1817 1714 1579 1497 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.3 16.1 15.7 15.1 14.8 14.6 14.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.7 131.3 131.9 132.4 133.5 135.3 136.4 137.3 138.4 139.5 140.8 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 5 5 6 6 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -32. -34. -31. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -28. -34. -37. -32. -32. -29. -26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY