* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * DOUGLAS EP042008 07/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 6 8 9 3 6 8 15 19 19 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 36 34 46 69 70 97 95 157 149 157 151 136 N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.3 22.9 22.4 22.1 21.4 20.8 20.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 95 93 93 94 94 90 85 82 75 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 68 64 64 56 55 47 42 38 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 80 78 91 87 105 97 83 74 69 61 49 N/A 200 MB DIV 19 14 -14 1 -4 -17 -26 -16 -12 -21 -11 -15 N/A LAND (KM) 240 272 317 378 441 522 624 741 887 1001 1088 1247 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.6 22.0 21.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.3 113.1 113.8 115.3 116.8 118.4 120.2 122.2 123.7 125.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 8 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -29. -33. -38. -43. -46. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -23. -29. -34. -37. -40. -43. -42. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042008 DOUGLAS 07/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY