* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 44 51 54 57 58 60 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 44 51 54 57 58 60 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 34 35 36 36 36 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 15 13 17 20 20 26 30 31 32 28 28 SHEAR DIR 69 67 81 97 80 86 73 89 82 86 76 92 80 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 160 160 160 160 159 157 157 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.4 -53.3 -52.2 -53.1 -52.0 -52.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 8 10 8 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 87 85 84 81 81 83 83 86 83 83 81 85 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 75 76 80 84 82 97 97 101 102 123 109 200 MB DIV 81 55 59 61 43 69 68 104 86 84 82 87 73 LAND (KM) 458 457 411 370 339 290 284 301 305 311 309 346 369 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.1 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.5 96.0 96.7 97.4 98.8 100.1 101.4 102.4 103.0 103.5 104.0 104.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 25. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 38. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 19. 26. 29. 32. 33. 35. 40. 41. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY