* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 52 57 60 65 69 70 69 65 59 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 52 57 60 65 69 70 69 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 49 54 58 63 67 70 71 68 60 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 8 8 4 6 9 4 11 9 30 32 43 SHEAR DIR 260 232 199 241 228 142 201 204 238 236 231 221 244 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 109 107 107 109 112 114 118 125 128 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 107 105 105 107 109 109 112 119 119 114 111 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -54.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 71 65 61 55 52 52 46 43 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 18 18 17 16 15 16 15 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 78 95 104 106 86 62 55 30 2 8 -37 200 MB DIV 54 17 53 63 69 41 13 80 44 17 26 22 -16 LAND (KM) 1081 1243 1408 1589 1771 2043 1879 1770 1715 1665 1507 1463 1527 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.8 23.0 25.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 27.5 29.1 30.6 32.3 34.0 37.4 40.9 43.9 46.7 49.4 52.1 53.5 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 18 16 15 14 15 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 14 15 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. 4. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 26. 30. 31. 30. 27. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 25. 29. 30. 29. 25. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY