* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 9 10 10 13 13 12 11 13 13 7 4 SHEAR DIR 170 114 112 102 97 64 84 65 78 53 73 47 41 SST (C) 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.9 24.5 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 96 97 101 107 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 62 60 56 53 49 51 49 49 45 45 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 43 32 30 26 24 17 -5 -28 -30 -28 -14 200 MB DIV -3 -5 -12 -16 -16 -23 -22 -8 -6 7 1 -18 -7 LAND (KM) 1988 2043 2099 2156 2214 2209 2053 1892 1722 1553 1366 1193 1057 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.1 131.6 132.2 132.8 134.2 135.8 137.5 139.3 141.1 143.0 144.8 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -15. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -23. -28. -32. -35. -35. -37. -32. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -15. -21. -27. -34. -36. -34. -34. -29. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY