* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 55 57 59 62 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 55 57 59 62 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 41 43 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 12 16 17 18 20 25 25 22 27 23 30 SHEAR DIR 70 80 79 68 74 77 73 89 79 81 89 89 83 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 159 159 160 159 158 159 159 158 156 154 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 85 82 80 82 84 82 87 85 87 84 85 85 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 67 72 82 75 83 91 103 88 103 107 103 200 MB DIV 69 61 59 50 59 109 80 75 90 63 82 64 96 LAND (KM) 494 450 414 382 350 295 283 276 242 252 237 251 284 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.1 96.7 97.4 98.0 99.2 100.3 101.3 101.9 102.6 103.2 103.9 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 24. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 35. 39. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 30. 33. 34. 37. 41. 41. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY