* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 56 59 62 65 67 64 61 57 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 56 59 62 65 67 64 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 53 57 61 65 68 71 73 71 65 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 10 9 6 8 13 12 11 13 25 29 33 SHEAR DIR 239 182 229 243 232 195 231 207 247 207 255 246 256 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 105 106 108 111 114 118 124 129 131 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 103 104 106 108 111 113 118 120 121 120 117 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 64 65 64 60 53 52 51 47 46 48 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 77 85 92 100 97 88 73 59 39 16 -12 -19 -44 200 MB DIV 10 29 46 43 20 7 21 46 35 19 12 8 4 LAND (KM) 1235 1406 1579 1773 1967 1939 1765 1659 1588 1474 1314 1234 1238 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.7 21.0 22.5 24.2 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.6 32.2 34.0 35.8 39.5 43.1 46.4 49.4 51.9 53.9 55.6 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 18 17 15 14 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 20 20 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 22. 23. 21. 18. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 20. 22. 19. 16. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY