* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 57 60 62 63 62 61 58 55 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 53 57 60 62 63 62 61 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 53 57 61 64 66 66 63 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 12 9 6 12 9 19 19 26 26 29 24 SHEAR DIR 196 234 242 243 182 225 218 232 226 243 248 232 239 SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 106 108 109 114 116 121 127 131 136 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 103 105 107 111 113 115 120 123 126 127 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 57 56 51 48 50 46 43 45 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 96 99 100 102 105 92 63 59 44 7 -1 -24 -43 200 MB DIV 48 61 56 29 9 21 40 17 30 17 19 28 -2 LAND (KM) 1428 1605 1783 1977 2057 1861 1689 1612 1473 1301 1105 971 897 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.4 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 32.5 34.1 35.9 37.7 41.3 45.0 48.3 51.1 53.6 55.9 58.1 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 18 18 17 15 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 19 26 34 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 18. 17. 15. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY